In assessing airport infrastructure needs post COVID19, the human being is the greatest unknown

While we watch webinars, read industry forecasts and attempt to predict what might happen when the aviation industry gets back on its feet, the truth is no one really knows. Predictions now are unlikely to be able to account for the most significant variable of them all – our own behaviour.

The reluctant business traveller

I write this having completed my first new client introduction with Microsoft Teams. Sure, I've been a regular user of Skype for quite some time but always in a familiar setting - knowing the people on the other end. This time was different. New faces. New introductions. The result? Surprisingly positive. Like many of us, I'm pushing the boundaries of remote working and its certainly making me reassess how to undertake long-distance interactions. Why does this matter? Two words - business travel. Historically, this has always been the slowest sector to recover after an economic downturn. With the European Commission today anticipating the largest downturn in history, business travel will again be a challenging market for the foreseeable future. The difference this time is that it may never recover to a level seen before the pandemic. While companies retrench on discretionary journeys, so too might individuals' own desires to venture to the dreaded "meeting" when alternatives now exist.

But while business travel may recede, it is in our very nature as human beings to explore. As someone who regularly flew from A to B for work, the thought of taking myself away for a weekend couldn't have been further from my mind. I'm surely not alone. As society finds its new normal, how many soon-to-be-former frequent flyers may be in the position of wanting to escape for a weekend - perhaps more regularly? With the discounting by low cost airlines soon to come, I will certainly be raising my hand when the time is right. Herein lays my first proposition (not a forecast!) - a redistribution of recovering traffic from business travel to leisure travel, albeit not to pre-pandemic levels for quite some time.

Perhaps we're not in it for the long-haul after all

Before the virus arrived, Airbus was reaping the benefits of its new A321LR model. The aircraft was plying the North Atlantic for Aer Lingus, Air Transat and TAP Air Portugal while the order book was beginning to bulge. Aer Lingus in particular sees it as a versatile aircraft, utilising it to Heathrow between transatlantic rotations with plans for Paris and Barcelona in the future. The A220 (formerly Bombardier C-Series) is also proving popular. Delta Airlines have continued to fly many, if not all, of their aircraft through this period while Air Baltic will restart operations exclusively with the aircraft. The trend was already pointing to smaller and more versatile airframes before the pandemic. Its arrival will surely hasten this trend.

But where have the large widebodies gone? Storage or retirement. Victorville in the USA, Alice Springs in Australia and Teruel in Spain have all welcomed A380s, 747s and 767s. Some of these will never return. In tough times they are clearly a liability. But the 787, A350 and 777-300ER however, will remain key components of airline fleets as the recovery commences. Efficient and adaptable, many of these aircraft are also being converted to carry hon-hazardous cargo in the passenger cabins, a trend we may see continue as airlines find new revenue streams. Aer Lingus meanwhile continues to use its A321LRs to Boston and London while TAP Air Portugal is already planning to substitute A321s for A330s on certain routes.

Herein lies my second proposition - with a reduction in business travel (including long haul) and redistribution of traffic towards leisure destinations, we might expect to see a proportional increase in narrow body aircraft undertaking a multirole function in the sub eight-hour sector. Those capable of palletised freight are also at an advantage. So, while you may not travel to Singapore or Japan for a weekend break from Europe, New York is certainly an option as are the usual suspects of Berlin, Paris and Rome.

Assessing long-term infrastructure needs

Many of Europe's airlines have been in a precarious state for quite some time - "zombie airlines" as Willie Walsh has allegedly referred to them. Mergers may be inevitable. A wave of airline consolidation could also skew the forecasts, and with consolidation comes the retreat to safe haven bases. The last wave of airline consolidation in the United States resulted in the demise of many of the regional North American hubs. Europe may also see a similar fate as low hanging fruit disappear from the skies. With British Airways' and Virgin's operations out of Gatwick all but ceasing for the foreseeable future, airports like Heathrow, Frankfurt and Charles de Gaulle will remain strongholds of long-haul operations for some time to come. But where these airlines have left, others are likely to fill the gap. EasyJet is no doubt eyeing strengthening its Gatwick presence as new slots become available. Perhaps Ryanair elsewhere too. But all in good time.

And so, while we wait for the "human being" to make his mind up about how to travel, where to travel, and when to travel, it leaves airport operators the open question of deciding the best way to forecast operational expenditure. The Code C sized aircraft (e.g. A320, 737) will likely gain an even firmer foothold in the marketplace. The remaining Code E aircraft (e.g. 787, A350) may find a new niche carrying cargo in the passenger cabin as well as their usual self-loading freight. All this affects everything from stand capacity to pavement life expectancy, slot co-ordination and passenger processing to cargo handling and turnaround times. Of course, on the road back to the new normal, there are many other stumbling blocks to consider - health checks and social distancing to name but a few. Your security or immigration queue may have just gotten longer too. I may of course be entirely wrong. We may go back to how things were in the past, but I said I would not offer any forecasts, simply propositions! I'll leave the number crunching to Truman's one-handed economist, wherever he may be.