The one-handed economist and the art of the forecast

"Give me a one-handed economist. All my economists say, 'on the one hand...', then 'but on the other...' ", opined President Harry S. Truman. Admitting that you don't know is as honest an assessment as anyone can make. Will we return to normal or will there be a new normal? The truth is, no one really knows what will happen when the aviation industry gets back on its feet.

In the past month I've read press releases, attended webinars and partaken in discussions with industry colleagues on the industry's outlook. I have even seen a presentation by a large corporation that gathered data on everything from SARS, Fukushima and the Great Recession outlining recovery paths from those events - "These guys really have a grasp on things" one might say. "Let's work with them. They certainly have the inside track to get us out of this mess". Its certainly a time to appear intelligent. But appearances can be deceiving.

The truth is, no one really knows what will happen when the aviation industry gets back on its feet. Admitting that you don't know is as honest an assessment as anyone can make. Will we return to “normal” or will there be a new normal?

Human beings are a fascinating species. Our economies largely operate based on our emotive responses to externalities, manifesting in "consumer confidence" and "business sentiment". We've seen societies adapt within days to conducting meetings and managing organisations remotely. Zoom, Teams and Slack have become the go-to productivity applications and by and large, for those in the knowledge-based economy, it seems to be working.

Much is also being talked about managing passenger queues at security and check-in when airports begin ramping up operations. Terminal occupancy times are likely to rise. The already painful experience at some airports is likely to become more complicated in the short term. So, life it seems has changed and with it "consumer confidence" and "business sentiment".

There will be a threshold however, when a business traveller or holidaymaker decides the experience is just not worth it, at least not as often as before the outbreak of the coronavirus. Inevitably this will affect everyone from airlines and hotels to bus operators and café proprietors. Our lives are clearly all intertwined. Some form of societal reset is in progress, that's for certain.

Where that will take us is anyone's guess right now. One thing's for sure though, what is likely to get us into any mess is likely to get us out of any mess - people. Its all about consumer confidence and business sentiment. And while we're at it, can someone please find me that one-handed economist?